PARCA Tracking Survey Wave 5

Background

The Program of Applied Research on Climate Action and the Environment in Canada (PARCA)

From September 2021 to March 2024, in partnership with ECCC and NRCan, the Impact and Innovation Unit conducted a multi-year program of research on climate change. The Program of Applied Research on Climate Action and the Environment in Canada (PARCA) combined behavioural science insights and methods with robust policy analysis to help improve the efficiency and effectiveness of government policies, programs and communication in support of individual and collective climate action.

PARCA had four key objectives:

• To use behavioural science to generate original evidence regarding barriers to and drivers of pro-climate actions in Canada;
• To help mainstream behavioural science across partner departments;
• To support evidence-based advice and decision-making across multiple domains – from policy to communications to programs to regulation;
• To facilitate positive changes that will generate more effective implementation of federal climate and sustainability agendas.

Behavioural science is a multi-disciplinary approach to the study of human decision-making and behaviour. Insights and methods from the science can shed light on key drivers and barriers to behaviour change and lead us to effective solutions through rigorous analysis and research methods. Behavioural science has the power to transform outcomes and become an important tool in advancing federal climate change objectives.

Methodology

Data collection: December 12 – 24, 2024

Number of participants: 2,291 Canadians aged 18 years and older including oversamples of 63 British Columbians, 101 Albertans, and 206 Saskatchewanians.

The descriptive data has been weighted by region, age group, gender, and education to ensure that the sample distribution reflects that of the actual Canadian adult population according to Statistics Canada census data (2021).

Participants were recruited in partnership with Forum Research, through nationally representative online panels that may have used a combination of different recruitment methods (probability; non-probability panels). It is not appropriate to calculate a margin of error in such circumstances. For reference only, a probability-based sample of similar size (i.e., 2,000) would have a margin of error of +/-2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

“Respondents” and “Canadians” are sometimes used interchangeably throughout this summary given the national nature of the sample and efforts to maximize representativeness via demographic weighting. Nonetheless, acknowledging the possibility of both random and systematic sampling errors (e.g., from non-probability recruitment), results should not be assumed to represent the entire Canadian population.

Please note that some figures in this report may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Non-responses were excluded from calculations of share.

Considerations

When interpreting the PARCA survey results, it is useful to keep in mind the context prior to and during data collection (i.e., fall and early winter 2024), which may have influenced the responses of survey participants.

Extreme Weather

• In September, it was announced that Summer 2024 was the warmest on record for the Northern Hemisphere.
• Although the wildfire season in Canada was considerably less intense than the previous year, the Insurance Bureau of Canada reported that Summer 2024 was the most destructive season on record, with $7B in insured losses due to extreme weather. The Jasper wildfire (beginning in July 2024) destroyed a third of the town’s homes and buildings and was estimated to be the second costliest fire event in Canadian history.
• Southwestern B.C. experienced a strong atmospheric river in October (the second of the year) that produced dangerous flooding, deadly landslides, and road washouts.
• Hurricanes Helene and Milton produced devastating impacts in the Southeastern US (Sept and Oct), accompanied by online conspiracy theories and misinformation.

Politics and Elections

• The NDP ended their supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberal government on Sep 4, creating a return to conventional minority Parliament.
• General provincial elections were held in British Columbia (Oct 19), New Brunswick (Oct 21), Saskatchewan (Oct 28), and Nova Scotia (Nov 26).
• Donald Trump was elected US President on Nov 5, prompting extensive news coverage about potential implications for international climate action.

Policy Changes and International Negotiations

• The establishment of the Canada Water Agency as a standalone federal entity, headquartered in Winnipeg, was officially announced on Oct 16.
• Climate negotiations were held at COP16 for the UN Convention on Biological Diversity in Colombia on Oct 21-Nov 1, followed by COP29 for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in Azerbaijan on Nov 11-22.
• Canadian households began receiving their latest quarterly installment of Canada Carbon Rebate on Oct 15, and small- and medium-sized businesses began receiving their first-ever federal carbon pricing rebates on Nov 25.
• In late Nov, the GC announced a GST/HST “tax holiday” on holiday essentials, like groceries and children’s clothing, from Dec 14, 2024, to Feb 15, 2025.

Climate Change Attitudes and Perceptions

Strong agreement with basic climate change beliefs remains stable, but lower than in 2022

The share of respondents who strongly agree that climate change is real, human caused, and an urgent threat has been stable since Dec 2023. However, belief in these fundamental statements remains substantially lower than in 2022, and belief that the effects of climate change will not be felt for a long time remains elevated. About 6 in 10 respondents strongly agree that climate change is real. About 5 in 10 respondents strongly agree that CC is serious and urgent. There is less agreement that climate change is human-caused compared to other measured beliefs.

‘Worry’ is the dominant emotional response to the issue of climate change

Both positive and negative emotional (i.e., affective) responses to climate change have decreased slightly since Dec 2023, consistent with other measures that suggest that Canadians are paying somewhat less attention to the issue. Worry is the dominant response (about 4 in 10 respondents say they are very or extremely worried). Anger, anxiety, and being overwhelmed are reported at lower rates (about 3 in 10 very/extremely). Roughly 8 in 10 respondents say they are not very hopeful or very confused about climate change. Twice as many respondents say they are very worried as say they are very hopeful.

Most Canadians still agree that collective action can limit further climate change

There has been relatively little movement since Dec 2022 in the belief measures visualized here, but scores have trended downward overall since the first waves of PARCA. A clear majority of respondents believe in collective action, are willing to make substantial changes themselves, and believe in the effects of their actions. Across all waves where the items co-occur, there has been a notable disconnect between aspirational action (willing to make changes) and reported action (have made changes), currently a difference of 12%. Even fewer respondents report that their friends and family are taking action (8% less than say they have acted themselves), indicating a possible discrepancy in perceived behavioural norms.

PARCA has previously identified 5 climate change segments that strongly predict climate intentions, individual actions, & support for collective action

Legend: ⭡⭡ Most; ⭡ More;  ~ Neutral; ⭣ Less; ⭣⭣ Least

The share of climate-motivated Canadians remains substantially lower than in 2022

The latest measurement provides further confirmation that the share of respondents who are Committed (16%) and Supportive (32%) on climate change remains substantially lower than it was in 2022 (around 25% and 36%, respectively). Where the motivated segments were a majority in 2022 (around 61%), they are now a plurality (48%). The share of Ambivalent (29%) and Indifferent (18%) Canadians also remains higher than in 2022 (around 20% and 12%, respectively). While the rise of these disengaged segments may be cause for concern, the Resistant segment—those most likely to actively oppose climate action—remains very small, at 5%.

Climate Change Mitigation Behaviours

How frequently Canadians use different modes of transportation remains relatively stable

A third of respondents (33%) report using public transit at least once per week, relatively unchanged since Dec 2023 but somewhat higher than reported earlier in 2023 (26%). Most respondents (68%) report using private vehicles at least once per week, which continues to be the dominant mode, followed by active transport (56%). Use of inter-city trains or buses instead of flying (15%), and electric bikes/scooters (10%), and motorized boards or self-balancing scooters (7%) were least prevalent.

Self-reported ownership of gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles has declined

Compared to Dec 2023, there has been an 8% drop in self-reported ownership of gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles, and a 7% increase in respondents who say they neither own nor plan to purchase one. Conversely, during the same period, intent to purchase, and ownership of, electric and hybrid vehicles has remained relatively unchanged. Ownership of electric bicycles, scooters, and boards remains low (10% or fewer respondents) and is unchanged from a year ago.

Self-reported air travel has declined for the first time since early 2022

Air travel, including both short (fewer than 5 hours) and long (more than 5 hours) flights, began rebounding from COVID-19 pandemic-related lows in the spring of 2022 and continued to increase through to Mar 2024. However, as of Dec 2024, slightly fewer respondents report having taken a short or long flight in the last two months (27% and 26%, respectively) than said the same in Mar 2024 (30% and 28%, respectively)

Slight decline in Canadians’ efforts to reduce their plastic usage

From Dec 2023 to Dec 2024, there has been a 6% decline in the number of respondents reporting that they always or frequently make efforts to reduce the amount of plastic they use. During the same period, there has been little change in the other food and waste behaviours surveyed. Three quarters (76%) of respondents say they always or frequently recycle, and close to three quarters (71%) report always or frequently making efforts to reduce wasted food. Mostly plant-based diets remain relatively uncommon (18%).

Fewer Canadians are talking with family or friends about climate change and its impacts

Time spent outside in parks or other natural spaces has declined year over year, with just over half (52%) of respondents saying they do so once a week or more, a drop of 13% from Feb 2023 (the earliest winter data point). A quarter (24%) of respondents say that they talk with their family or friends about climate change on a weekly basis, down 5% from Dec 2023. Most respondents (61%) continue to avoid using single-use items by bringing their own reusable items at least once per week.

Slight decrease in the frequency of circular economy behaviours among Canadians

There have been slight decreases in the share of respondents who report frequently engaging in circular economy behaviours. A fifth (20%) of respondents report repairing products to extend their lifespan about once a week or more, down from 25% a year prior. Slightly fewer respondents (19%) report buying secondhand, repaired, refurbished, or remanufactured items about once a week or more, down from 22% a year prior.

Decline in self-reported installation of new or improved insulation

As of Dec 2024, fewer than 1 in 10 homeowners (7%) report having solar panels at their homes (down slightly from Dec 2023), while 11% report an intention to purchase them in the next year. In the same period, there has a been a decline in homeowners who say that they have purchased new or improved insulation for their home or residence (30% in Dec 2023, 25% in Dec 2024). Variability over time may, in part, be caused by changes in how respondents interpret questions. For instance, reports of “new or improved” insulation may decrease the longer it has been since the upgrade.

Little change in Canadians’ ownership of biomass home heating, smart thermostats, and energy-efficient windows and doors

Since PARCA began tracking wood-based and biomass home heating in Aug 2023, there has been little change in respondents’ reported ownership or intentions to purchase. A third (34%) of homeowners report having a smart or adaptive thermostat in their home, with a further 13% saying that they plan to purchase one in the next year. About half of homeowners (48%) say their home has energy efficient windows and doors, with 12% reporting that they plan to purchase them in the next year.

Solar water heater, sump pump ownership and intentions down year over year

There have been slight drops in stated ownership of solar water heaters and sump pumps, year over year, as well as a decrease in the intention to purchase them. 80% of respondents say that they neither have a solar water heater nor intend to buy one, down from 76% in Dec 2023. 62% of respondents say that they neither have a sump pump nor intend to buy one, up from 57% in Dec 2023.

More Canadians can easily afford their daily energy needs than could a year ago

There has been a 6% increase in the share of respondents who say they can easily afford enough energy to meet their daily needs since Dec 2023. A third of respondents (32%) say they can only meet their energy needs with difficulty, down 3% from Dec 2023. The share of respondents who say they cannot afford their daily energy needs has not changed much over time.

Half of Canadians in rural and remote areas are unable to afford their daily energy needs, or can only do so with difficulty

Between Feb and Dec 2024, energy affordability improved for residents of all community sizes. However, as of Dec 2024, rural and remote areas have the highest proportion of respondents who say that they cannot afford to meet their daily energy needs, or can only do so with difficulty (51%). For these residents, energy unaffordability increased dramatically between Aug 2023 and Feb 2024, likely due in part to seasonal differences in home energy demand.

Energy unaffordability is highest in Atlantic Canada and Alberta

Across all regions, slightly fewer residents report being unable to afford their energy needs, or only with difficulty, in Dec 2024 compared to a year earlier. This share is down 6% in Ontario, 5% in Quebec, and 4% in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Half of respondents (50-51%) in Atlantic Canada and Alberta, say that they cannot afford their daily energy needs, or only with difficulty. Energy remains substantially more affordable in Quebec and British Columbia than in other provinces, with only about a third of residents reporting difficulty.

Climate Change Adaptation Behaviours

Canadians most frequently experienced severe wind storms, excess cold, and power outages in the two months prior to Dec 2024

A third (32%) of respondents report having experienced a severe wind storm in the two months prior to the survey in Dec 2024, with periods of excessive cold (23%) and power outages (22%) also reported frequently.

Experiences of other types of extreme weather reached or approached seasonal lows

Some extreme weather-related events, such as excessive heat, wildfires, and wildfire smoke, were experienced at lower rates, as might be expected from seasonal variation.

Engagement in numerous adaptation behaviours has been mostly stable

A quarter (24%) of Canadians say they have looked for information on the risks or future impacts of climate change on their local area, but less than half as many (11%) say they have taken action to protect their homes against weather-related risks. 5% of respondents say they have had to leave their home because of weather-related risks in the past two months, a share that has been stable since summer 2023. As of Dec 2024, there has been a slight decline in the share of respondents who say they have looked for support with negative emotions related to weather or climate, down 3% from earlier in Feb 2024.

No increase over time in Canadians with protective measures against poor air quality or household disaster emergency plans

A quarter (26%) of respondents report having taken protective measures against poor air quality – like using a HEPA filter for air filtration due to health hazards such as wildfire smoke, environmental allergens, or smog. A fifth (18%) are planning to do so in the next year. The proportion of respondents who have undertaken disaster emergency planning (e.g., establishing a safe meeting spot if families become separated), or intend to do so in the next year, has been relatively stable since Aug 2023. This continues to suggest a large and persistent gap between intention and action for disaster emergency plans.

Half of Canadians have home/tenant insurance for flooding and other weather-related risks

Since the first wave of the Tracking Survey in Aug 2023, the proportion of respondents who own home or tenant insurance for flood-related risks has remained stable, hovering around 50%, and the share of respondents who plan to purchase this type of insurance has also remained stable at 10-12%. In that same period, there has been a small increase in the share of respondents who have home or tenant insurance for other weather-related risks (wildfire, wind, ice damage; from 44% to 47%) and who intend to obtain this insurance within the next year (from 10% to 12%).

Only 2 in 5 Canadians have an emergency supply kit in their home

Only 39% of respondents report having an emergency supply kit at home, and 28% said they plan to get one within the next year. These numbers have remained stable since Aug 2023. Similar to disaster emergency planning, there is a large and persistent gap between intention and action for emergency supply kits.

Most continue to pay attention to alerts about extreme weather, but fewer prepare

Almost 4 in 5 respondents say they pay attention to public alerts about extreme or hazardous weather, but just under half say they actually prepare for those kinds of events. Nearly 3 in 4 respondents agree (somewhat or strongly) that they are someone who acts in an environmentally-friendly way. This share has been relatively stable since Aug 2023 but is lower than in 2022.

Support for Climate and Environmental Policies

Majority of Canadians support clean electricity and an oil and gas cap

The share of respondents who say they somewhat or strongly support a cap on emissions from the oil and gas sector has been relatively stable since Aug 2023, measured at 60% in Dec 2024. Support (somewhat or strongly) for generating all electricity in Canada from energy sources (like wind, hydro, nuclear) that do not directly produce greenhouse gases, by the year 2035, has rebounded slightly, reaching 64% in Dec 2024. Support (somewhat or strongly) for a global carbon price has fallen to its lowest point yet (49%), and support for a national carbon price is relatively stable at 47%, though much lower than in 2022.

Nearly half (46%) of Canadians support eliminating subsidies for oil and gas companies

About the same share (45%) support (somewhat or strongly) the implementation of border carbon adjustments, which mean charging a fee on imported goods from countries with weaker climate change standards. Slightly fewer (43%) support (somewhat or strongly) eliminating public sector financing of the fossil fuel industry in Canada. For all three policies shown here, about a quarter (23-27%) of respondents remain undecided, and about a tenth (9-12%) say they are unfamiliar with this kind of policy and have not therefore indicated a preference.

Most Canadians support subsidizing energy retrofits, especially for low-income households

Support (somewhat or strongly) is highest for subsidizing the installation of energy-efficient windows and doors for low-income households (70%) followed by subsidies for insulation and air sealing, also for low-income homes (69%). Opposition is slightly higher towards subsidizing the replacement of oil and gas home heating equipment with electric equipment for all households. However, a majority of respondents (58%) somewhat or strongly support this policy.

Many Canadians support the creation of a national wildfire insurance program

Most respondents (60%) support (somewhat or strongly) the creation of a national wildfire insurance program for Canadians living in high-risk wildfire areas without access to private insurance. Fewer respondents (46%) support limiting participation to those who have adopted professionally-recommended wildfire prevention strategies for their homes. Nearly three quarters (73%) of respondents support the creation of community response shelters for Canadians at risk from the impacts of natural disasters, like wildfire smoke.

Support has stabilized for policies that prepare for extreme weather events and compensate those impacted

After an initial decline in support from Dec 2021 to Dec 2023, support (somewhat or strongly) for compensating Canadians affected by weather-related disasters has stabilized at 67% in Dec 2024. Similarly, support (somewhat or strongly) for making vital infrastructure more resistant to extreme weather events has stabilized at 73% after declining between Dec 2021 and Dec 2023. Opposition towards these policies is very low (fewer than 10% of respondents), and very few say they are unfamiliar with these kinds of policies.

Many Canadians support a clean economy if there are tangible economic benefits

A majority of respondents (62%) agree (somewhat or strongly) that their support for moving Canada to a clean economy is contingent on seeing local economic benefits, such as jobs and new businesses. Similarly, 56% of respondents agree that there will be increased economic opportunities in a move to a clean economy. In both instances, roughly a quarter of respondents remain neutral. Fewer respondents (42%) are confident that all levels of government would work together to support the transition to a clean economy.

Canadians think that clean tech, green buildings, and sustainable forestry are most likely to generate economic benefits in a clean economy

More than half (52-57%) of respondents also indicate that in the move to a clean global economy, low-carbon electricity, green manufacturing (e.g., steel, cement), and electric vehicle manufacturing would generate significant economic benefits for Canadians. Conversely, electric vehicle manufacturing was the industry for which the highest share (21%) of respondents do not believe it would generate economic benefits. Notably, between a quarter and a half of respondents (26-45%) do not know whether any of these industries would generate economic benefits for Canadians as the world moves to a clean global economy.

GC websites are top source for information on job and career opportunities in the clean economy

Respondents were asked where they would be most likely to look for information about job and career opportunities in the clean economy, including training and skills development. After Government of Canada websites, the most likely sources are job websites (47%), provincial and territorial websites (43%), and university or college websites (39%). Social media platforms, non-governmental websites, and conversations with family, friends, colleagues, or instructors are least likely to be consulted.

Half (53%) of Canadians in eligible provinces say they or their household received the Oct 2024 Canada Carbon Rebate

Slightly more (59%) say that they heard, read, or saw something about the Canada Carbon Rebate (CCR) in the two months prior to the 2024 data collection. But a quarter (26%) say they did not, and a further 14% are unsure or don’t know. In Dec 2024, a quarter (24%) of respondents say that their household did not receive the payment, while a further quarter (23%) are unsure or don’t know. Awareness of the rebate and knowledge of receiving payments increased from Aug 2022 to Aug 2023 but have remained relatively stable since Aug 2023. Interestingly, the percentage of respondents who say they don’t know if they heard, read, or saw anything about the rebate or if their household had received a payment in the past two months increased at each time point.

Support for renewable energy resource development has remained stable

There is high overall support for further development of renewable energy, ranging from 50-79%, depending on the resource. Between Dec 2023 and Dec 2024, support for further developing all renewables remained stable. As of Dec 2024, support (somewhat/strongly) is highest for solar (79%), wind (76%), and hydro (76%) development.

Increase in support for nuclear energy development; natural gas, oil, coal remain stable

As of Dec 2024, support for further development of non-renewable energy remains substantially lower than for renewable energy, especially for coal and oil. Support (somewhat or strongly) for natural gas development has been relatively stable over time (53-57%) and is highest among non-renewable energy sources. Support for nuclear energy development rebounded in 2024 to 48% after hitting a low of 40% in Dec 2023.

Information Sources and Trust

Most Canadians access conventional Canadian media on at least a weekly basis

Reported rates of accessing conventional media, and scientific and governmental sources have remained stable since July 2023. Notably, there is a 15% gap between Canadian and non-Canadian media usage on a weekly or greater basis. Only about 1 in 4 respondents access government sources at the same frequency.

The internet, family and friends, and social media remain important sources of information

The share of respondents accessing conventional Canadian media (63%, previously) is matched by those who do their own internet search. Nearly as frequently accessed are friends and family and social media platforms. There has been a slight uptick in AI usage since July 2023, but usage remains low overall, with less than 1 in 4 respondents accessing it on a weekly or greater basis.

Canadians are following and encountering less climate change related news

Only 34% of respondents say they have followed news on climate change pretty or very closely in the month prior to the survey, down from 43% in Aug 2023. Similarly, only 52% of respondents say they come across climate change or environmental news once a week or more, down from a high of 67% in Aug 2023. In both cases, these are the lowest observations in the available data, and part of a downward trend. The reasons behind the change are not clear but are consistent with changes in priorities and top issues observed elsewhere (e.g., economic versus climate focus).

Scientists are the most trusted group to make good decisions about climate change

As of Dec 2024, most respondents trust (somewhat or strongly) scientists (68%), their family and friends (65%), renewable energy companies (55%), and environmental groups (51%) to make good decisions about climate change.

Government and non-renewable energy companies are the least trusted groups

As of Dec 2024, few respondents (29%) trust non-renewable energy companies to make good decisions about climate change. Government sources are also not generally trusted. Distrust is highest for the federal government (39%), followed by provincial or territorial governments (37%), and local governments (30%), all up slightly since March 2024.

The federal government is not seen as having competence, integrity, or care for citizens’ views

As of Dec 2024, only about 1 in 3 respondents somewhat or strongly agree that the federal government has competence (31%), acts with integrity (33%), or cares what ordinary people think (35%) regarding climate change. Relative to agreement, comparatively more respondents somewhat or strongly disagree on competence (42%, 11% higher than agree), integrity (37%, 4% higher), and care (39%, 5% higher) of the federal government. Competence, integrity, and benevolence (i.e., care and concern for citizen wellbeing) are the core dimensions of trustworthy systems.

Sample Characteristics

The weighted sample is representative of the Canadian adult population for gender, age, region, and education

Note: Numbers may not sum to 100% due to rounding, response options not visualized, and/or non-response. Percentages in sample are weighted by age, gender, region, and education.

Regional Profile – Tracking Survey Wave 5

Note: Numbers may not sum to 100% due to rounding, response options not visualized, and/or non-response. Percentages in sample are weighted by age, gender, region, and education; counts by region in column headers are unweighted.